By: Double E
NFL Week 4
Our first “down” week of the season saw us go 3-3, not bad! That puts us at 13-5 on the year, a very healthy 72%-win percentage.
In what turned out to be our first bad beat of the year, Brandon Aiyuk only converted 5 of his 10 targets into catches, missing his over by 1. Those types of losses sting the worst because you know the research was good and the opportunity was there, but the execution just fell short. Nevertheless, we will continue searching for the best plays each week and try to achieve our first perfect 6-0 week.
One note: this week is the last week until bye weeks start, meaning fewer bets will be available to us in the coming weeks. Let’s make this week count!
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 6-3 for the year)
1. Broncos +7.5 at Jets (-110): My first homer pick of the year, the Broncos have had a brutal stretch to start the season. To date, they’ve faced off against the undefeated Seahawks and Steelers, and the previously perfect Buccaneers before the Broncos eviscerated them. The Bucs weren’t undefeated against a cake walk schedule mind you, they beat the Commanders and Lions, two teams currently 2-1. Despite this tough trio, the Broncos have yet to lose by more than a touchdown, and Bo Nix is blossoming into the quarterback people envisioned. Another betting nugget to support taking the Broncos in this spot: the over/under is below 40. It’s tough to blow out teams in low scoring affairs.
2. Rams +2.5 at Bears (Even): Something is wrong in Chicago. With all those weapons they have on offense, I think most people expected them to light up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. Instead, Caleb Williams has looked lost on most plays, getting sacked at the third highest rate in the league. On the other side, the Rams just pulled off a dramatic victory over the Niners despite their top two WRs being out. That’s the benefit of having a good coach/quarterback combo, you can make up for guys missing with a strong game plan and execution. I think the Rams are the more mature team in this matchup and they’ll make fewer mistakes.
3. Bengals/Panthers over 46.5 (-115): Andy Dalton versus his former team? Yes, please. I expect a lot of fireworks in this one as the Bengals desperately need a win and the Panthers have nothing to lose. Dalton showed last week he can still sling it, and after the Bengals just gave up 38 on their home field to a rookie QB, I fully expect Dalton to air it out to try and top that. Meanwhile, the Bengals are getting healthier on offense as they welcomed Tee Higgins back last week, and I expect Burrow to regularly exploit the holes in this Panthers defense.
Props (2-1 last week, 7-2 for the year)
1. Josh Jacobs under 59.5 rushing yards (-125): Jacobs split carries with Emanuel Wilson last week against the Titans, a disturbing sight after Jacobs dominated the backfield touches against the Colts. Perhaps this was about workload management and keeping Jacobs fresh, but if that’s going to continue, we can no longer view Jacobs under the same scope we did before. The Vikings defense has been one of the surprise stories of the NFL so far, ranking second in rushing yards allowed. Brian Flores is already garnering head coaching interest for next season, and I expect that to continue after his defense puts on another show against the Packers.
2. George Pickens over 49.5 receiving yards (-135): Pickens has gone over this total in 2 of 3 games this season and is in a great spot this weekend against a Colts pass defense allowing quarterbacks to complete passes at a 70% clip this season. The one game he didn’t go over was against the Broncos and Pat Surtain, but even in that game he could have easily gone over had a 50-yard completion to him not gotten called back by penalty.
3. Saquon Barkley over 79.5 rushing yards (+115): Barkley’s nickname should be “The Phoenix” as he has been totally reborn in this Philly offense. Last year, he rushed for over 94 yards just once. This year, he’s topped that number in all three games. He’s averaging 21 carries per game and now faces a Buccaneers defense that has given up the 8th most rushing yards this year. Add in the fact that Brown and Smith are dealing with injuries, and I expect the Eagles to rely on their workhorse once again to carry them this weekend.