by: Double E
NFL Christmas Weekend
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, and I hope you and yours have a blessed holiday season. We’ve had quite a journey this year on our way to a 48-43 record. There have been highs (5-1 in Week 1) and lows (1-5 in week 13), but overall, there’s been consistency as 12 of our 15 weeks together have seen us go .500 or better.
Last week, half of our picks were nailbiters. The Bears and Browns maintained their under on the last play thanks to Darnell Mooney egregiously dropping a tipped Hail Mary pass. Stafford and the Rams were up 28-7 on the Commanders with the ball in field goal range when he threw his 25th and final completion. Rachaad White was comfortably below 20 carries until he received 6 carries on the last drive alone.
If you placed any fantasy hedge bets, I hope they worked out for you as well as they did for me. In addition to Mostert getting his 20th TD, Deebo and Kupp also scored, but I still got the W thanks to Cook, Adams, and Waddle balling out. That’s how you thread the needle.
All I want for Christmas is to be with family, but a profitable week wouldn’t hurt, let’s dive in.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 24-21 for the year)
1. Jaguars/Bucs over 42.5: The Bucs have hit 4 straight overs and this offense is clicking, increasing their scoring output in 5 straight games. Baker seems highly motivated to lead this team to the playoffs, and with his weapons he can do just that. The Jaguars have evenly split overs/unders this year, but 6 of their unders have come against defenses currently in the top 10 for points allowed, which Tampa Bay is not. Let it snow points in this Sunshine state matchup.
2. Vikings +3.5: It is so hard to trust a team on their 4th QB, with a 2-4 home record, playing a 10-4 team coming off a 42-17 win. Yet with all those reasons, this spread is still only a field goal. That’s Vegas giving us a hint, but my guess is the betting public will heavily bet the Lions, giving us an opportunity.
3. Ravens +5: In this highly anticipated Super Bowl preview, the Ravens find themselves as underdogs for the second time all season. The Niners have been favored in every game this year and are playing at home, yet they’re just 8-6 ATS this year. That includes their current 3 game losing streak ATS at home. We know about Lamar’s success against NFC teams, I expect that to continue this week.
Props (1-2 last week, 24-22 for the year)
1. Tony Pollard over 50.5 rushing yards: Pollard likely didn’t help you make the fantasy playoffs, but he does quietly have 8 straights games with 51 or more rushing yards. This high scoring matchup features two incredible passing offenses, but I like the rushing attacks to provide a nice counter punch.
2. Chuba Hubbard over 15.5 rushing attempts: This line has grown since I last recommended taking the over on 13.5, but that’s because Chuba has now seen 22 or more carries in 3 straight games. The Packers are allowing the third most rushing yards per game, paving the way for another big day for Hubbard.
3. DK Metcalf over 59.5 receiving yards: DK was on his way to a quiet game against the Eagles until he caught three balls on the final drive to help setup the game winning TD. Regardless of who’s at QB for the Seahawks this week, I expect DK to carve up one of the worst passing defenses in the league.