by: Double E
NFL Week 10
Look out Christian McCaffrey, after another 3-3 week, we have our own streak: 4 straight weeks going 3-3. While not as impressive as scoring an NFL TD in 17 straight games, this streak means we now stand at 29-26 after week 9. We certainly hope to break this streak in a positive way, but this streak highlights the difficulty in outsmarting the adjustments Vegas makes as the season progresses.
Reflecting on the first half of the season, one positive takeaway is the fact our winning percentage (52.7%) is higher than the percentage commonly required to breakeven (52.4%). This has been due to several interesting trends. 10 over/under recommendations have been made in this weekly article, and amazingly 9 have hit. Of those, we are (pause to knock on wood) a perfect 7-0 on unders. Conversely, that means we are 6-11 on spreads, but 5 of those wins have come when we’ve picked an underdog. On the prop side, we are only 3-4 when picking QBs and 5-7 on WRs, but an insanely good 6-2 on RBs.
Let’s use this knowledge to our advantage and dive headfirst into the second half of the NFL season.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 15-12 for the year)
1. Raiders/Jets under 36.5: Playing to our trends, this section features two unders and an underdog. Our first pick features two of my favorite under teams that are a combined 12-5 to the under, and both are coming off back-to-back unders. This game just screams boredom with young QBs and defensive minded head coaches. I won’t watch this game, but I’m happy to profit from it.
2. Packers/Steelers under 38.5: Another pair of teams that have been dreadful at scoring the football and have combined to go 12-4 to the under, including 4 straight weeks for both squads. The advantage here is we get a 2-point kicker over the Raiders and Jets game. Thank you, Vegas.
3. Vikings +3 vs Saints: The Vikings are 5-3-1 ATS while the Saints are 2-6-1 ATS, yet it’s the Saints who are favored when these teams meet in Minneapolis this weekend. If you didn’t get a chance to catch Joshua Dobbs’ heroics last weekend, I highly recommend you go back and watch the game highlights. The man willed that Vikings team to victory after only being a Viking for 96 hours. Pretty incredible stuff. That Skol chant is going to be deafening this weekend as the Vikings go for their 5th straight win.
Props (1-2 last week, 14-14 for the year)
1. Aaron Jones over 52.5 rushing yards: As with our spread and totals picks, we’re going to follow our prop trends and look at 3 RBs with strong matchups. Jones has been quiet this year as he’s dealt with various injuries, but last week he showed us a glimpse of what he can do when healthy. 24 touches for 99 yards and a TD are what we’ve come to expect from Jones, and LaFleur has mentioned publicly his intent to feed Jones when he’s healthy.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson over 46.5 rushing yards: Rhamondre, along with the whole Patriots offense, has been awful this year, but finally they get to face an opponent that is equally awful on defense. Two pick-sixes last week provided an illusion that the Colts are tough defensively. However, they have been continually gashed on the ground (6th worst in the NFL), making Stevenson a strong play.
3. Rachaad White over 26.5 receiving yards: Running back A has 33 catches for 279 yards and Running back B has 32 catches for 292 yards. You know one of them is White, but can you guess the other? That would be the elite Christian McCaffrey, often regarded as one of the best RB receiving threats of all time. Yet, it is White that has the second most catches by an RB this season and has far exceeded this total in 3 straight games.