by: Double E
NFL Week 6
14 yards. That was the difference last week between being 2-4 versus 4-2. That’s how close this league can be and why we must never be complacent in our pursuit to find an edge. Sitting at 17-14 through 5 weeks means we need a good week to stay ahead of the wise guys.
In hindsight, going with the Rams and Cardinals last week may have been a reach against the grain on the zig-zag principle discussed in this article previously. The Bengals were coming off a devastating defeat in Tennessee and even though they were on the second leg of a road back-to-back, Burrow has proven to be resilient through his injuries and that clearly led to an inspired team effort against the Cardinals. The Eagles survived an overtime scare that would suggest a more disciplined approach to an inferior Rams team and that’s exactly what played out.
Only the Packers and Steelers are on bye this week, which means plenty of games are available to find our next profitable picks, let’s dig in.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 8-7 for the year)
1. Vikings/Bears over 44: The last 4 games between these teams in Chicago have gone under this total, but I think we’re due for a different result this year. This year the Vikings and Bears are averaging 45 points per game scored combined, which matches their combined scoring average during the last 4 years. Defensively this year, however, is a completely different story and the reason behind the “over” recommendation. From 2019-2022, these teams on average gave up a combined 48 points per game. This year, they are giving up 56 points combined. These are two teams with bad records and nothing to play for but the excitement of their fans. Expect some fireworks in Chicago this weekend.
2. Patriots/Raiders under 41.5: I hated this Patriots offense, but I never expected to hate the Patriots defense. The last two weeks have almost seen the “over” hit thanks to extremely poor performances by a usually reliable bend-but-don’t-break group. This week, I’m expecting regression to the mean on both sides of the ball. I’m betting 38-3 and 34-0 will transform into 19-13, giving us another easy under.
3. Eagles/Jets under 41: This is a matchup of strength on strength, which usually means a lower scoring game. Breece Hall showed out last week in Denver but will face a much stiffer defensive front against Philly. AJ Brown has dominated the past three weeks with 100+ receiving yards each game but will now face one of the top cornerback duos in the league. The Eagles offense has not scored more than 25 points in a road game this year (they’ve scored 34 points in each home game), yet they’ve managed to still go 3-0 on the road. They seem content getting leads and holding on, something I fully expect them to be able to do against a middling Jets offense.
Props (1-2 last week, 9-7 for the year)
1. Kirk Cousins over 250.5 passing yards: The gold chains have been put away with the Vikings off to a 1-4 start, but the passing yards have been abundant for Cousins. No doubt this line is being heavily impacted by the loss of Jefferson, but the Bears, not the Browns, are the Vikings opponent this weekend and they have given up the most passing yards in the league. Even with the game’s best receiver unavailable, Cousins has enough weapons to eviscerate this Bears defense and likely add another 300-yard masterpiece to his 2023 campaign.
2. AJ Brown under 68.5 receiving yards: As mentioned above, Brown has been a monster the last three weeks, going over 100 yards in each game. This week could easily be his fourth straight over 100 because Brown is that special. However, with the Eagles being large road favorites playing against a team with a weak offense, I’m foreseeing a game in which the Eagles get ahead and coast. Game script, and not Brown’s talent, will ultimately prevent him from going above this total.
3. Cooper Kupp over 88.5 receiving yards: Get him while he’s back. Kupp came back from a four-game absence to start the season and picked up right where he left off in 2022. 8 catches for 118 yards would have been his 5th best performance in 2022 (he only played 8 full games), meaning there’s plenty of runway for this target monster to put up stats that far exceed this high total.