By: Double E
NFL Week 18
Another great week, as we went 5-1 for the second week in a row to raise our season record to 59-43!
This week, a lot of hype surrounds players with contract incentives. I’ve seen several posts about players this year that are within reach, yet no one seems to share what the hit rate of these wagers have been historically. I think there is some logic in looking at player incentives, but also be careful just blindly betting the trend. Make sure the situation is right for both the player and the team.
For the last time this 2024-2025 NFL regular season, let’s look at the best plays.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 27-24 for the year)
1. Broncos -4.5, Dolphins/Jets under 44.5 in a 6-point teaser parlay (-110): First play this week revolves around two AFC teams fighting for the 7th playoff spot. The Broncos are the favorite to take the spot, so they should come out strong. The Dolphins defense showed against the Browns last week that they can still show up against weak offenses.
2. Eagles -2.5 vs Giants (-105): The Eagles blew out Dallas without Hurts, and I expect nothing less this week even though more starters will join Hurts on the bench. The Giants mistakenly beat the Colts to hurt their draft spot, but they should find their losing ways again this week.
3. Vikings at Lions over 56.5 points (-110): It’s the last game of the regular season and it’s a dynamite matchup. The winner gets the 1 seed and home field advantage. The loser has to go on the road. Expect fireworks in the most anticipated regular season matchup of the season.
Props (3-0 last week, 32-19 for the year)
1. Jared Goff over 274.5 passing yards (-130): In the highest scoring matchup, of course there will be tons of passing. Goff should have no problem shredding the Vikings through the air since their strength lies in stopping the run.
2. Brian Thomas over 79.5 receiving yards (-115): The Jaguars have had nothing to play for recently, but Thomas has still produced, going over this total in 5 of his last 6 games.
3. Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions (-125): I’ll buy the idea that Nabers wants to catch Brock Bowers to set the rookie reception record. To do that, he has some ground to make up, so I have no doubt he’ll see double digit targets in this one.