By: Double E
NFL Week 16
Hopefully your fantasy week went better than mine. Only one of my three teams advanced, and that was only because they had a bye!
Last week was split, as our spreads/totals were perfect, while our props all lost. The props surprised me as each of those running backs had favorable matchups, but none of them were able to deliver.
Week 16 has some awesome matchups, let’s look at which ones offer the best opportunity.
Spreads+Totals (3-0 last week, 22-23 for the year)
1. Falcons under 6.5 First Quarter Points (Even): The three best rookie quarterbacks this year (Nix, Daniels and Williams, in that order) combined to score 3 points in the first quarter of their first pro starts this year. Now Penix is getting his first start, and even though it’s at home against the lowly Giants, the NFL is a different speed than college and it takes these quarterbacks at least a quarter to adjust too.
2. Rams -3 at Jets (-110): The Rams just beat the Niners in a game where Cooper Kupp didn’t record a catch. Don’t expect that to happen again. But do expect more points from the Rams this week as they take on a Jets team that’s been consistently overrated all season.
3. Bengals/Lions/Bills/Packers ML parlay (-112): A fun one to end. These teams are all massive favorites because they need wins and they’re playing awful teams. Only the Lions are on the road, which I’m more than comfortable with.
Props (0-3 last week, 27-18 for the year)
1. Trey McBride TD (+110): Kyler promised he’d get one soon. I’ll assume he meant against the Panthers and their horrendous defense.
2. Bijan Robinson over 19.5 rushing attempts (-110): Bijan has cleared this total in three straight games and with a rookie making his first start I expect him to make it four straight.
3. Brian Thomas Jr. over 69.5 receiving yards (-114): Thomas Jr. has been a target monster the last month, clearing this line in four straight games. He has another awesome matchup against the Raiders this week that I expect him to take full advantage of.