By: Double E
NFL Week 14
Three straight losing weeks has eroded the huge unit edge we’ve carried for most of the season. Props in particular have suffered, going 2-7 in the last three weeks after being an insane 23-7 through 10 weeks. Even with this stretch of bad luck, we still sit at 43-35 for the season and a respectable 55.1%-win rate.
Six teams are on a bye this week, limiting our options slightly. Let’s evaluate what plays stand out.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 18-21 for the year)
1. Falcons +6.5 at Vikings (-120): Going back to the well here as the Falcons, and Kirk Cousins specifically, absolutely imploded last week against the Chargers. The Falcons defense did not allow a touchdown, yet Cousins’ four interceptions allowed the Chargers to score all the points they needed in a four-point victory. If Cousins eliminated even one of those interceptions, we would have likely covered. In that spirit, I’m backing Cousins to go off in his return to Minnesota. The Vikings are more adept at stopping the run; therefore, Cousins should have a field day, helping the Falcons to keep this one close.
2. Chargers/Chiefs under 42.5 (-115): The first time these teams met; it was a 17-10 snooze fest. The Chargers have shown more life offensively as of late, but as I just mentioned they failed to score a single offensive touchdown against the Falcons. Coincidentally, this happened in the first game without JK Dobbins, so perhaps that missing element will hamper the Chargers moving forward. The Chiefs meanwhile just barely squeaked out a win against the Raiders last week, scoring a measly 19 points. That was their fourth divisional game this season, and it was the third time they scored under 20 points in those matchups.
3. Browns +6.5 at Steelers (-105): In the five games Winston has started for the Browns, they are 2-0 against the AFC North and 0-3 against everyone else. For whatever it’s worth, this team is playing inspired football despite being 3-9 and they’re getting a huge number on the road this week. This will be the fourth straight divisional game for the Steelers so we should expect them to be emotionally fatigued at this point, helping the Browns keep this one close.
Props (1-2 last week, 25-14 for the year)
1. Justin Jefferson TD (-125): After starting the year with a touchdown in four straight games, Jefferson is on a bit of a cold streak. Six straight games is a long time for a star receiver to go without catching a touchdown. This week’s matchup against the Falcons presents the perfect opportunity for Jefferson to remind Cousins what he’s been missing.
2. Chuba Hubbard under 2.5 receptions (-155): Chuba has gone under this total in 5 of his last 6 games, and more importantly, he’s gone under in the last two since Jonathan Brooks joined the active roster. While game script may dictate more passing for the Panthers, I expect them to continue giving Brooks more looks, limiting Hubbard’s opportunities.
3. Jerry Jeudy over 4.5 receptions (-135): Recency bias has nothing to do with this pick as Jeudy has been on a heater for all 5 of Jameis’ starts. During that stretch, Jeudy has accumulated 33 catches on 49 targets, good for 6.6 and 9.8 a game, respectively. While I do expect the Steelers to focus on Jeudy and attempt to shut him down, there’s just way too much volume coming his way to pick anything but the over here.