By: Double E
NFL Week 13
We’ve reached Thanksgiving week in the NFL, my personal favorite as there is nothing better than enjoying the spoils of Thanksgiving dinner while watching NFL football. We here at Square Off Sports wish each of you a Happy Thanksgiving and we are thankful for you following our sports content.
Last week was the first time in two years writing this article that I did not get one pick right. Even still, that puts us at 41-31 for the year with positive regression on our side.
Here are my favorite plays for week 13.
Spreads+Totals (0-3 last week, 17-19 for the year)
1. Falcons +2.5 vs Chargers (-125): The Falcons are coming off a bye after a rough road trip that saw them get walloped by the Broncos 38-6. Playoff teams usually respond to those losses with renewed efforts, and I expect that trend to play out here. The Chargers have been a great team all year, but they’re coming off three straight home games and their strength of victory this year stands at a paltry .329.
2. Steelers +3.5 at Bengals (-135): The Steelers lost to a bad Browns team in a blizzard and suddenly everyone who said they would be bad this year pointed to that game as proof that they were right. I’m not as convinced, and I think this game will show once again the resilience of a Tomlin coached team. Last week snapped a Steelers 7-game streak covering three points on the road. Additionally, the Steelers have won 3 of the last 4 against the Bengals, and those wins came with names like Trubisky, Pickett, and Rudolph leading them.
3. Buccaneers -4.5 at Panthers (-125): Mike Evans returned last week and the Bucs blew out the Giants. I don’t think that was a coincidence. Evans is the heart and soul of that team and getting him back in time for a playoff run was significant. I think that momentum carries into this week against an inferior Panthers squad who’s having everyone rethink how bad they are by putting up a fight against the Chiefs. Don’t be fooled, this is still a terrible team with no direction. I don’t see Canales showing well against his former team this week.
Props (0-3 last week, 24-12 for the year)
1. Calvin Ridley over 59.5 receiving yards (-135): Ridley has averaged over 90 receiving yards in the five games since the Titans traded away Hopkins, and he hasn’t gone below 58 yards during that time frame. The Commanders are sizable favorites but rank only 17th against opposing wide receivers, setting Ridley up for another big day.
2. Michael Pittman Jr. over 49.5 receiving yards (-120): Pittman sat out week 10 against the Bills due to an ailing back, but in the two games since he looked more like the receiver that prompted a 3rd round ADP in fantasy. He’s shown greater chemistry with Richardson, earning 15 targets across the two games, and more importantly recorded his 2nd and 4th highest receiving totals this year. Aiding Pittman’s ability to go over this week is Josh Downs being out and New England ranking 25th against opposing wide receivers.
3. George Pickens longest reception over 28.5 yards (-115): Pickens has shown remarkable chemistry with Wilson all year, and has meshed perfectly with his deep ball ability. On that note, Pickens’ longest reception has gone over this total in 8 out of his 11 games this season, including 6 straight. The Bengals rank 21st against opposing wide receivers, setting Pickens up to catch another bomb.