By: Double E
NFL Week 12
It was bound to happen. Our first losing effort of the season occurred last week and it happened in the craziest of circumstances. CMC, the best running back in the league when healthy, was sitting at 69 rushing yards with the Niners up 4 with 3:56 left in the game against Seattle. On the first play of the drive, he rushes for 11 yards to get to 80 yards, exactly what we need to hit the over. The next play he rushes for one yard, but there’s a defensive penalty so it’s negated. The next play he gets the handoff, and rushes for negative one yard to put him at 79 rushing yards for the game. He never got another carry. Bad beats happen every week, but this one hurts.
We’re on to week 12 with a 41-25 record. Let’s dive into this heavy bye-week with my best plays.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 17-16 for the year)
1. Raiders under 17.5 points vs Broncos (-130): The Raiders have lost 6 straight games, scoring 24 or less in every game. On top of those losing efforts, they’ve accumulated several injuries, including their top two running backs being doubtful for this game. This week they face a Denver defense coming off games against Mahomes and Cousins, giving up an average of 11 points. True, the Raiders scored 18 against the Broncos in their first matchup, but their two touchdowns came on a crazy 57-yard pass to Bowers and a meaningless 3-yard rush and two-point conversion when they were down 34-10 late. I expect the Broncos to blanket Bowers and snuff out any last-minute touchdowns this time around.
2. WAS, HOU, KC ML parlay (-154): Sometimes you just have to take the favorites. The Panthers, Titans, and Cowboys are three teams in disarray, and they all face a freight train this week. The odds aren’t in the range of wagers I typically suggest, but this week we must make an exception.
3. Niners +5.5 at Packers (-110): The news of Brock Purdy being out shifted this line significantly, but I oddly like the Niners even more now that they’re being given extra points. The strength of the Niners has never been their quarterback play. Kyle Shanahan is a wizard at scheming offensive plays to get his playmakers the ball in space and I think the Purdy injury will only fuel his fire to prove how good of a coach he is. Jordan Love has also been extremely loose with the ball this year, so it could take just one costly turnover for the Niners to cover and even potentially pull off the upset.
Props (1-2 last week, 24-9 for the year)
1. Chuba Hubbard under 49.5 rushing yards (+110): Hubbard has gone over this line in 9 straight games and the Panthers rewarded him with an extension for his efforts. So why take the under? This week he’s a 10-point underdog against the vaunted #1 Chiefs rush defense and Jonathan Brooks is making his NFL debut. Fade Hubbard this week.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson over 14.5 rush attempts (-110): The Patriots have been surprisingly competitive since Drake Maye took over and Rhamondre has benefited with 20 carries in three of the last four games. The Patriots are once again heavy underdogs on the road in Miami, but I expect Maye to do enough to keep things close and give Stevenson enough opportunities to cash this over.
3. Joe Mixon over 89.5 rushing yards (+105): I’m not trying to overthink anything here, Mixon has been an absolute stud for the Texans, and he should have been featured in this article a lot more. The man has over 100 yards in 6 of the 8 games he’s played, and he’s carried the ball 20 times or more in 5 straight. The Texans are big favorites and I expect Mixon to carry the load for them offensively once again.