By: Double E
NFL Week 11
It took 10 weeks, but we finally had our first 4-2 mark of the season! We started the second half of the season strong, and our record on the year now stands at 39-21.
Props once again carried us, as all three of our prop plays hit last week. Our prop play record alone stands at an absurd 23-7! Of the 7 prop losses we’ve suffered, 5 are attributable to receivers/tight ends, 1 was a quarterback and 1 was a running back. For that reason, this week won’t highlight any receivers, although you already know I love any under play for Drake London as he receives the Pat Surtain treatment this week.
Let’s breakdown my top plays this week!
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 16-14 for the year)
1. Broncos ML vs Falcons (-130): I think the general opinion of these teams varies greatly because of the names responsible for each team’s success. The Falcons have Kirk Cousins as their QB, an established veteran who has brought stability to that franchise and is delivering on the expectations of making the Falcons a playoff team. The Broncos have a rookie QB in Bo Nix that is ascending, but for some reason still doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Both teams had letdown games last week, so both come into this game with plenty of motivation. However, the big stat for me is the Broncos are .500 with a +20-point differential, while the Falcons are 6-4, but only a +2-point differential. This is notable because these teams have played similar opponents. The Broncos are 3-0 this year against NFC South opponents and playing at home gives them the slightest advantage in this matchup.
2. Colts at Jets under 43.5 (-110): You probably heard the national media singing the Jets praises after pulling off the upset over the Texans two weeks ago. How did they respond? With a 6-point stinker at Arizona. They’ve yet to eclipse 24 points in a single game this season, so there’s no reason to be concerned about them forcing this total over. On the other side, the Colts are turning back to Richardson, and that could spell disaster for their offense. Richardson’s passing metrics are the worst in the NFL, so expect the Jets to stack the box and force Richardson to try and beat them with his arm.
3. Browns ML at Saints (-115): The biggest advantages in this matchup all reside on the Browns side. They’re the team coming off a bye, they are relatively healthy and are strong in areas where the Saints have injuries, i.e. receivers. The Saints are coming off a huge win over the Falcons, but there were so many factors in that game that went their way, it’s impossible to judge that game as anything other than a fluke. I hate taking teams that are 2-7 on the road to win, but I think this is a nice value in this situation.
Props (3-0 last week, 23-7 for the year)
1. Christian McCaffrey over 79.5 rushing yards (-130): It was great seeing McCaffrey back in action last week and fortunately he came out of the game healthy. Fast forward to this week, he has a great matchup against a Seahawks team that he has dominated historically. In six meetings against Seattle, McCaffrey has gone over 86 rushing yards. In the 4 games as a member of the Niners, he has gone over 100 rushing yards. I expect more dynamic running from CMC this week.
2. Jonathan Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards (-125): Even though the Colts are underdogs this week and even though I expect the Jets to stack the box to force Richardson to throw, I still expect Taylor to run all over this defense. The Jets continue to be gashed on the ground this year, giving up the 7th most rushing yards. The Colts are going to run a lot of RPO’s and that could mean some big cutback lanes for Taylor. He’s cleared this line in 5 of his 7 games this season, and I expect him to make it 6 out of 8.
3. Bijan Robinson over 24.5 receiving yards (-130): Our final running back is no slouch himself, as Bijan has slowly proven why he was a consensus top 3 fantasy pick this year. As a receiver, he’s cleared this line in 4 straight games. He should once again find some success against a Broncos defense that allows opposing teams to dump off the ball to RBs to avoid teams going deep. I also expect the Broncos to win, which could mean several checkdowns on a final drive attempt by the Falcons.