By: Double E
NFL Week 9
Make it four straight weeks that we’ve gone 3-3, bringing our record on the season to 30-18. While props carried us during the first six weeks, they’ve faltered the last two, going 2-4.
Week 9 concludes the first half of the regular season, and the lines seem to get more and more difficult to predict as the season progresses. Yes, by now we can ascertain which teams are gunning for the playoffs versus draft position, but even with that knowledge there are no double-digit point spreads this week. That indicates how tightly contested the NFL is today, even the worst teams in the league can make things difficult on the best teams.
That said, we need to get creative to find good plays, let’s see what stands out this week!
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 13-11 for the year)
1. Bengals/Eagles ML parlay (-153): The Raiders and Jaguars are two of the worst teams in the league with a combined record of 4-12. They both face significant uphill battles on the road this week at the Bengals and Eagles, two superior teams needing wins this week as their upcoming schedules get much more difficult.
2. Broncos +15.5 /Bears +8 in 6-point teaser (-127): On the flip side, here are two teams with winning records staring at underdog status in Vegas this weekend. The Broncos continue to stun teams with their rookie quarterback. What those teams seem to continually forget is the Broncos defense, which is giving up the fewest yards per play this season. The Ravens may be able to move the ball better than most teams against that Denver D, but their defense is atrocious, meaning Nix and Co. should also move the ball enough to keep it within two scores. The Bears meanwhile are coming off a heartbreaker and understandably want to get back in the win column. I’m not comfortable taking them on the money line, but I love them getting a touchdown plus two-point conversion against a Cardinals team that has won two consecutive games on a last second field goal.
3. Lions -3 at Packers (Even): Detroit has won two straight games in GB, including last year’s two touchdowns drubbing against the Jordan Love led Packers. Love enters this weekend with a questionable designation, and if he were to miss, this line would rocket up to 6 or 7. Jaire Alexander is also questionable with a knee injury, meaning the Packers could have increased difficulty stopping Amon-Ra. Dan Campbell will have his team fired up for this divisional matchup and I expect the Lions’ streak to continue at Lambeau.
Props (1-2 last week, 17-7 for the year)
1. Mike Gesicki over 29.5 receiving yards (-130): I like the Bengals to win so you know I love some of their players to go off. Higgins is doubtful and Gesicki has produced receiving yards of 73 and 91 in two of the three games Higgins has missed. Against the lowly Raiders defense, I like Gesicki to garner enough volume early before this game potentially turns into a blowout.
2. Devonta Smith over 59.5 receiving yards (-105): Similarly, I love the Eagles position players to have a field day against the Swiss-cheese Jags defense. Smith has already produced 64 or more yards in 5 out of 6 games played, so he should have no problem hitting 60 yards this week. It should be noted that Smith has put up these numbers while Brown has put up more than 80 receiving yards in every game he’s played. These receivers are thriving together in this new Kellen Moore led offense.
3. Ceedee Lamb over 7.5 receptions (+110): Lamb didn’t have to wait for the annual Cowboys Thanksgiving game to get fed, Dak gave him all he could handle last week to the tune of 13 catches on 17 targets. It was a significant game because it came after the Cowboys bye week, signaling to us a change in the Cowboys offense going forward that we need to capitalize on. Additionally, the Cowboys are underdogs in the game featuring the highest total of the week so Lamb should once again be busy.