By: Double E
Week 7
How ironic that last week’s article depicted the varying success we’ve had on spreads and totals versus props, then our week 6 spreads proceeded to go 0-3 while our props went 3-0. It’s perplexing how stark the contrast has been.
Sitting at 24-12 through six weeks is still extremely favorable, and this week has several matchups that excite me. A couple of big trades shook up the league this week, with Davante Adams reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, and Amari Cooper joining forces with Josh Allen. Both moves immediately upgrade their respective offenses, while the Raiders and Browns don’t have any obvious benefactors (Meyers and Jeudy are not WR1 material).
Let’s look at the best plays for week 7!
Spreads+Totals (0-3 last week, 9-9 for the year)
1. Bills ML, Commanders ML, Colts +5 3-leg parlay (-114): Our first play this week is a doozy. A week after taking three underdogs in this section, I’m cozying up next to three favorites. The Titans, Panthers, and Dolphins are a combined 4-12 with significant deficiencies at the QB position. Will Levis has not experienced the second-year breakout the Titans were hoping for, even with the offensive additions of Ridley and Pollard. Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young and has looked more competent than the former first overall pick, but the team has still lost by double digit points in three straight games. The Dolphins are perhaps the worst offense of this bunch, with 15 points representing their highest point total in the last four games. All of that adds up to a nice 3-leg parlay taking two huge home favorites just to win, and another home favorite to cover 5 points.
2. Ravens -3.5 at Buccaneers (-110): The biggest difference between teams with good records is their ability to win in the trenches. The Ravens have one of the best lines while the Bucs sport a more average one. The Ravens have won four straight and are rounding into form as the premier rushing team we expected them to be. In the Monday night spotlight, I fully expect Lamar and King Henry to dominate.
3. Jets/Steelers under 38.5 (-105): This is a great place to zig while the betting public zags. The addition of Davante Adams immediately makes the Jets offense unstoppable right? Not so fast. Mike Tomlin just prepared for Davante last week since the Steelers were visiting the Raiders, and he’s been around long enough to have coached against Rodgers several times. Toss in the fact that Russ will be getting his first start, and I expect this game to be much lower scoring than anticipated.
Props (3-0 last week, 15-3 for the year)
1. Tyreek Hill over 4.5 receptions (-125): While I like the Colts to cover in this matchup, Hill has earned 5 or more targets in every game and he’s coming out of the bye against a soft secondary that’s given up the fifth most receiving yards in the NFL. You know McDaniel has spent some late nights creating new ways to get Hill the ball with Huntley at QB, and I expect that to be on full display this weekend.
2. Demario Douglas over 4.5 receptions (-130): Douglas has quietly earned 9 targets in three of the last four games, and the switch to Drake Maye at QB did not diminish that value. Now he gets a Jaguars defense that ranks as the third worst in the league against the pass, and he gets the added benefit of being a 6-point underdog. Rhamondre Stevenson is also out this week, making it more likely that the Patriots will rely on their passing game.
3. Tony Pollard over 59.5 rushing yards (-145): This may stand out since the Titans are major underdogs, but the Bills have been absolutely gashed on the ground this season, giving up 5.3 yards per carry, second worst in the NFL. Pollard has gone over this total in four of five games with Spears healthy (Spears will miss this game), and he’s also on a team coming off their bye week. Therefore, I expect the Titans to have a specific game plan to get him the ball early and often to keep Allen and his new weapon, Cooper, on the sideline.