By: Double E
Week 6
Last week we experienced our second 3-3 week, and it’s amazing how debilitating that feels after 3 weeks of going 5-1. However, if you’ve played this game long enough you know that there’s nothing wrong with a .500 week, save for the few bucks you lose on the spread. Our season record now sits at a healthy 21-9 through five weeks.
Reflecting on our season so far, we’re 9-6 on spreads and total, and a remarkable 12-3 on props. This makes sense, as the betting community views props as a “less efficient” market and therefore aren’t normally subjected to heavy movement from sharp bettors. Additionally, there are significantly more options in the props market that we can target, helping us gain leverage by targeting specific matchups.
Nevertheless, spreads and totals are equally important for enjoying football on Sundays, so we will continue to feature our three favorite plays each week. Let’s dive into what looks appetizing this week.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 9-6 for the year)
1. Cardinals +5.5 at Packers (-115): The Cardinals pulled off a furious rally against the Niners last week to win and they proved once again to be a tough road team as they also played well at Buffalo in week 1. Playing at Lambeau will be a tall task, but Kyler Murray and Co. seem more than capable of keeping this one close, or at least pulling off a backdoor cover late. Dating back to when Murray came back last season, the Cardinals have covered this spread in 4 out of 6 games and won 3 of those outright.
2. Panthers +6 vs Falcons (-110): This is one of those uncomfortable bets that you place and look away until after the game, however I do believe this is a good spot for the Panthers. The betting public is reading way too much into the drubbing they took last week in Chicago and overlooking that this is still a division road game for the Falcons. The Falcons have only played once on the road in five games, and it took a drop from Saquon to help them secure the one-point victory. There’s no guarantee that this Falcons team will travel well and with matchups against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Cowboys on the horizon, they can very easily overlook the Panthers.
3. Broncos +3 vs Chargers (-115): This line is stunning considering the run the Broncos are on. After starting 0-2, the Broncos have reeled off 3 straight wins, including two road wins, and Bo Nix has blossomed into the second-best rookie quarterback. Yes, the Chargers are coming off a bye, but their two wins this season are against the lowly Raiders and Panthers. Additionally, they lost to the Steelers by 10 while the Broncos only lost to them by 7. Also, once again, the Broncos are in one of the lowest projected totals of the week, and these situations are like a buffet for underdogs. Let the dogs eat.
Props (2-1 last week, 12-3 for the year)
1. Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions (-130): Mike Evans is the NFL’s perfect model of consistency. He’s gone over 1,000 yards in every season he’s played in, and he’s scored double-digit touchdowns in half of those seasons. He’s performed regardless of who is throwing the ball to him, and I believe he’s destined for Canton. However, this week he happens to be playing his one kryptonite in this league. For all his success, Evans has 11 straight games against the Saints under 4.5 receptions. Combine that with the possible negative game script this week (I expect the Bucs to crush the Saints and rookie QB Spencer Rattler), and I’m taking the under on Evans’ receptions.
2. Zay Flowers over 4.5 receptions (-130): Averaging almost 8 targets per game, Flowers is in prime position to succeed in week 6. The Commanders are the surprise team in the league right now, but their defense can be had. Flowers had a strong game against an equally weak Bengals defense, and with a high projected game total, I expect him to continue seeing elite volume from Lamar.
3. Ladd McConkey under 49.5 receiving yards (-130): The entire Chargers receiving group can be downgraded in a matchup with Denver’s vaunted defense in the Mile High City and I would happily take the under on all their receiving props. McConkey is being featured here because his receiving total is 20 yards higher than either Johnston or Palmer, and I can’t imagine the Broncos putting Surtain on either of those two if McConkey starts producing.