By: Double E
Week 5
5-1 again! Last week marked our 3rd week going 5-1, and we now stand at an incredible 18-6 through four weeks.
Sadly, the bye weeks are upon us which means fewer bets to choose from. The injury bug has also gotten feistier, with more studs staring at their first missed action this week (JT, Nabers, and others). Nevertheless, we are striving for that first perfect 6-0 week, and there are some great opportunities for us.
Let’s look at what plays stand out this week.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 8-4 for the year)
1. Ravens at Bengals under 50.5 (-110): The Bengals defense has been horrible through the first four weeks, and the Ravens defense hasn’t been far behind them. There are many reasons for these lapses, but none of them pertain to the situation at hand this week. This is a divisional matchup between two AFC North teams that know each other extremely well. A typical over/under for this matchup would be around 45. Instead, we get this juiced line due to this season’s small sample size, and I am all for it.
2. Panthers at Bears over 41.5 (-110): The Bears defense has been stout this season and there’s reason to believe that can continue against a Panthers offense with limited weapons. However, the Panthers defense is atrocious and represents the perfect opportunity for Caleb Williams to get right. The Panthers’ offense has also looked markedly improved with Dalton and I expect them to be able to move the ball enough to hit the over.
3. Cowboys +8.5/Saints +11 in 6-point teaser (-133): Our first teaser of the season sees us taking two road dogs in primetime. For the life of me I cannot see the Steelers blowing out the Cowboys even with the injuries to the Cowboys defense. This feels like a low-scoring affair, and with that I’ll happily take the extra points. In the other matchup, the Chiefs haven’t won by more than 7 points all year, and now they are down another offensive weapon in Rice. For that reason, I like the Saints to keep this within single digits and maybe pull off a sneaky upset.
Props (3-0 last week, 10-2 for the year)
1. Brian Thomas Jr. over 49.5 receiving yards (-135): The Colts are very generous to opposing wide receivers (8th worst), and this week Thomas gets his turn. The Jaguars are already involving him in the game plan more with 9 targets in each of the last two games, and with them starting 0-4, I only expect them to continue feeding their young wideout.
2. Tee Higgins over 49.5 receiving yards (-125): Higgins has looked strong in his return, earning 6 targets his first game back and then 10 targets last week. His 10 targets last week were more than Chase, as were his 6 catches, and I expect there to be more volume in the highest expected total of the week.
3. Jordan Love over 249.5 passing yards (-140): Love has gone over this total in both games he’s played this season, and I expect more fireworks against a Rams secondary in the bottom third of the league defending the pass. Love is highly motivated to get his first win of the season and he simply has too many weapons for the Rams to defend.