by: Double E
Week 2
Woo! What a first week!
5-1 is exactly the type of start we needed to kick off this 2024 season. If you had asked me which pick I thought would lose, I certainly never would have guessed St. Brown, but that’s the NFL. Sometimes even the most certain trends can go awry.
This week blesses us with more exciting matchups and some intriguing betting options as injuries have already made their mark on the young season. I encourage you all to be prudent when researching which injuries to consider in your bets. Not all injuries have the same impact, and teams will often pivot from the conventional choice to surprise their opponents with new wrinkles that aren’t on tape.
Please be sure to share this article with your friends and let’s make it another great week!
Spreads+Totals (3-0 last week, 3-0 for the year)
1. Commanders ML vs Giants (-125): The spread of this game is 1.5, and typically in these situations I will just take the money line and avoid any potential heartbreak. I don’t like either of these teams, but I cannot get behind the Giants being a pick ‘em on the road against any team in the NFL. Daniel Jones has flat out swindled the Giants for millions of dollars (160 to be exact), and not even a Commanders defense that gave up 4 passing touchdowns to Mayfield last week will be enough to get him on track.
2. Chiefs -6 vs Bengals (-110): Just last week, the Chiefs beat the Ravens by 7 and the Bengals lost to the Patriots by 6. Clearly with this line, the books are telling us they don’t read too much into those results. I, however, will happily bite as the Bengals looked as dysfunctional on offense as I predicted last week, and the Chiefs defense is more than capable of shutting them down. You can also bet Mahomes has heard the chatter about Burrow having his number.
3. Patriots +3.5 vs Seahawks (-115): The upset of the season so far saw the Patriots march into Cincinnati and come out with a victory. The Patriots played inspired football in support of Jerod Mayo’s first game as head coach, giving him a Gatorade bath after the final whistle. This pick doesn’t mean I’m sold on the Patriots as a team overall, but I do think there is immense value in them getting more than a field goal at home in the early time slot against a west coast team.
Props (2-1 last week, 2-1 for the year)
1. Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts (-115): I invite you to go watch any film you can find on Malik Willis, and you will quickly realize why the Packers will be hesitant to let him air it out this week. Not to mention the Packers traded for Willis after their preseason concluded, meaning Willis has had very little time to learn this offense. The only way Jacobs doesn’t see 17+ carries is if the Packers can’t keep it close. If this game was in Indy, I would probably shy away from it, but I trust the Packers will be tough at Lambeau regardless of who’s quarterbacking the team.
2. Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards (-135): It’s going to be a struggle for White to clear this mark. Last year, he only cleared it 9 times when he was the bell cow back due to a paltry 3.6 yard per carry average. This year, he has steeper competition for carries in Bucky Irving, and in a favorable game script last week, he only mustered 31 yards on 15 carries. Combine these trends with a Lions defense that’s tough against the run and it’s an easy fade for White this week.
3. Najee Harris over 14.5 rushing attempts (+105): Dating back to last season, the Steelers have won 4 straight regular season games, and all 4 games have seen Harris get 19+ carries and 70+ yards. They have clearly identified a formula that works for them, and it’s a formula that can succeed against a Broncos run defense that just surrendered 103 yards to Kenneth Walker.