by: Double E
NFL Week 1
Welcome back ladies and gentlemen!
If last night’s Ravens vs Chiefs game was any indication, we are in for another incredible football season! Those who followed this article last year enjoyed a record of 57-52, but here at Square Off Sports we certainly believe we can top that mark this year!
A couple of notes for those reading this article for the first time this year. This is a weekly article written for Sunday and Monday NFL games and is divided equally between spreads/totals and prop bets. These are the actual bets that I am placing, I would never recommend a wager that I would not be willing to take. Lastly and most importantly, all bets listed will be via odds on ESPN Bet.
Here’s to a fun and profitable football season!
Spreads+Totals (0-0 last week, 0-0 for the year)
1. Bengals/Patriots under 40.5 (-115): I don’t feel bad for Patriots fans. They got to experience the greatest dynasty run the NFL has ever seen, and now it’s their time to suck. With their putrid offensive weapons, I don’t expect them to top 20 points in many games this year. On the other side, the Bengals are dealing with some issues to their top wideouts. We all know the holdout campaign Chase has been on, likely limiting his effectiveness in Week 1. And now we just learned that Higgins was downgraded to Doubtful with a hamstring injury, potentially leaving Burrow without his top two receiving options.
2. Cowboys +2.5 at Browns (Even): This is a tough line, as I would typically prefer to tease it to +3 or +3.5. However, I think the market is slightly overvaluing the Browns here. Yes, their defense is great and will likely do a great job at limiting Dak and Co., but the Cowboys aren’t slouches on the defensive side of the ball either. Watson simply hasn’t looked like himself since joining the Browns, and in a highly anticipated matchup between two solid teams, I lean towards the team with the better QB.
3. Colts +3 vs Texans (-120): Perhaps no team improved more this offseason than the Texans (Bears fans may disagree). I see another line here that overvalues those acquisitions and fails to acknowledge that this is still a division matchup, one dominated by the Colts mind you (33-11 all time). Yes, this version of the Texans is different, and Stroud has the look of a franchise QB, but Richardson is one of the favorites for comeback player of the year for a reason.
Props (0-0 last week, 0-0 for the year)
1. James Cook 60+ rushing yards (-140): Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for the Bills last season and Cook thrived as a result. This week, he matches up with a Cardinals defensive front that wouldn’t start at Alabama. It’s a lot of juice to pay, but I expect Cook to smash this over in a convincing Bills victory.
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ receiving yards (+105): Here are Amon-Ra’s regular season receiving yard totals in home games last year: 102, 102, 108, 77, 95, 112, and 144. Oh, and don’t forget that he didn’t make the Pro Bowl last year, adding fuel to his fire this season. After watching the show “Receiver” on Netflix, I believe this man is on a mission and I am more than happy to profit from it.
3. DK Metcalf under 59.5 receiving yards (-105): Metcalf has long been one of my favorite players to watch and draft in fantasy football, so I hate picking against him. However, this week he’s going up against Patrick Surtain II, who just reset the CB market with his massive contract extension that he earned for a reason. I think Geno looks to his other weapons to generate offense in this one.