by: Double E
Super Bowl Sunday
Super Bowl LVIII is upon us, and it’s set up to be one of the greatest Super Bowls in recent memory. The narratives coming into this matchup are unbelievable, and the potential history that could be made challenges us to rethink how great an NFL franchise can be.
The Chiefs are trying to do something only three other franchises have, win 3 Super Bowls in 5 years. Their run would arguably be the best though because it has been 18 years since the Patriots won back-to-back. The previous longest period between back-to-back champions was 9 years. In today’s NFL, there is simply less disparity than ever before, and the Chiefs now have an opportunity to cement their legacy.
The Niners are trying to win their first Super Bowl since 1995. They’ve only been to 2 Super Bowls this millennium after going to 5 Super Bowls (winning them all) in the first 33. Shanahan and Purdy have a lot to prove under the brightest lights. Shanahan needs to show he can win like his father after previously blowing two double-digit leads, while Purdy is trying to accomplish something no other Mr. Irrelevant quarterback back has, win a Super Bowl.
No matter the final score, we are sure to be entertained with great football, hysterical commercials, and the presence of Taylor Swift.
Good luck to everyone on all the wagers you place on the last game of the 2023-2024 NFL season. Thank you again for joining us this season, and comeback next season for more Double E Double 3 NFL picks.
Spreads+Totals (5-4 for the playoffs)
1. Niners ML: The spread is simply too close to the money line for me to feel comfortable taking any chances. Betting against Mahomes is the equivalent of betting suicide, but I truly believe the Niners are the better team here. There are plenty of narratives to support both teams, but for me, the Niners will triumph.
2. Chiefs/Niners under 47.5: We’ve been saying it all season, this is a different Chiefs defense than we have ever seen in the Mahomes era. They just held the Ravens, in Baltimore, to 10 points. While I expect some explosive plays out of each offense, I do not see either team continually sustaining scoring drives.
3. Chiefs 1st Half Spread +0.5: The Niners have come out flat in these playoffs, and perhaps they completely reverse course in this one and come out with a bang. However, I’m betting that Reid has an incredible script written up to attack this Niners defense early. I foresee a slight Chiefs advantage at halftime or a tied game, both of which result in a win here.
Props (6-3 for the playoffs)
1. Patrick Mahomes under 260.5 passing yards: Some articles I’ve read suggest this line is inflated by 10-15 yards and I can see why. This is not the same playoff Mahomes we’ve grown accustomed to. In 14 playoff games coming into this season, Mahomes averaged 291 passing yards per game and hit over this total 11 times (79%). These playoffs he’s averaging 239 passing yards per game and has only gone over this total once, just barely surpassing it with 262 passing yards against the Dolphins. It feels uncomfortable because it’s Mahomes, but the under is the play here.
2. Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 rushing attempts: Conversely, Pacheco is eating like a homeless person at a buffet. He has carried the ball 24 times twice in these playoffs after registering just one 20 carry game all season. The other playoff game he had 15 carries and didn’t get more because Mahomes knelt for the final three plays. Ride Pacheco in this matchup.
3. Kyle Juszczyk over 0.5 receptions: One fun player prop that caught my eye, don’t sleep on the fact that Kyle had three catches in Super Bowl 54. These teams have had two weeks to prepare, and that often means several wrinkles in their offensive attack. Insert Juszczyk, who has great hands and will be a huge focal point in the offense as the Niners will undoubtedly try to give McCaffrey as much as he can handle.
BONUS – Game Props
This is the Super Bowl, which means we need to consider some additional game props for our entertainment. Depending on what state you’re in, you can bet on the coin flip, Gatorade color, and so on. Colorado does not allow for those types of bets; therefore, I will focus on the game related props that caught my eye.
1. Either team to attempt a 2-point Conversion – Yes: I don’t think this bet will hit as a result of either kicker missing a PAT, they are a combined 98-99 on the season. Rather, these teams trust their offenses enough to deliver the extra two points in a clutch moment and I envision the score at one point being 14-6, 21-13, or 28-20.
2. Each team to score in the First Quarter – Yes: It’s hard enough to stop a Reid or Shanahan offense when they have one week to prepare. With two weeks of preparation, I fully expect these offenses to come out clicking and deliver at least a field goal apiece in the first quarter.
3. Will the game be tied after 0-0 – Yes: With the spread being as tight as it is, these next two props seem like no brainers. This bet also acts as a nice hedge to our 2-point conversion bet.
4. Largest lead of the game – Under 14.5 points: Again, with the point spread being what it is, I don’t see either team running away with this game. Two touchdowns seem like the most this game could reach before the opposing offense punches one in.