by: Double E
NFL Conference Championships
What a difference a week makes. After a 5-1 start in the Wild Card Round, we’re back to .500 after going 1-5 in the divisional round. Let’s preview the conference championships with the sides I like the most.
Spreads+Totals (3-3 for the playoffs)
1. Ravens -3.5: Since we’re extremely limited on options, let’s buy the hook here with minimal impact to our odds (-120 vs -115). I like what the Ravens did in their win last week against the Texans. Although the Texans slowed heart, the Ravens stuck to what they do and ultimately blew them out. I don’t expect the Chiefs to go as quietly, but the reality is the Ravens have the defensive stoppers required to slow down Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco. That’s enough to allow the soon to be MVP Lamar Jackson to do his thing and win this game.
2. Chiefs/Ravens under 46.5: Again, going to add a few points here and push our odds slightly (-140 vs -115). I was impressed that Mahomes was able to supercharge this offense when it needed him the most against the Bills last week. However, as previously mentioned, the Ravens have dudes on the defensive side of the ball, and they will be hungry to send the Ravens to their first Super Bowl since 2012. I like the Ravens to cover and this total to go under.
3. Lions +8.5: One last odds adjustment (-130 vs -105) in support of the underdog in the NFC. I’ve been in support of both Lions opponents this playoff run, picking both the Rams and Bucs to cover their spreads. I partially did that because I believed both those teams had a chance to defeat the Lions, but not so much. This team is filled with heart and passion that has been unmatched, but they also play with the physicality required to take on a team like the Niners.
Props (3-3 for the playoffs)
1. Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts: I think Mahomes is going to be forced to carry the load Sunday and that’s going to mean using his legs to move the chains.
2. Jared Goff over 35.5 passing attempts: The Lions are big underdogs, but that doesn’t mean they can’t move the ball. Goff should be able to find holes in the Niners secondary and sustain some drives.
3. Christian McCaffrey under 90.5 rushing yards: The Niners offense creates a ton of problems for opposing defenses, but the Lions have consistently sold out to stop the run this year. I think they stick to their guns and try to fill up the run lanes against McCaffrey, slowing him down but not completely stopping him.