by: Double E
NFL Week 18
Happy 2024! We’ve reached the end of the NFL regular season with a very respectable 54-49 record, including last week’s 4-2 mark that was almost our first 6-0 week.
As we evaluate plays this week, it’s imperative we keep in mind what incentives teams are playing for. Bet on teams with nothing to play for at your own peril.
I want to thank all of you for following along our inaugural season together, and a big thank you to Square Off Sports for the opportunity to write this weekly article. I hope to see you all back here next season.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 27-24 for the year)
1. Buccaneers -4.5: Carolina looked disinterested in last week’s blowout against the Jaguars, and this week brings another team with playoff aspirations looking to pound them. The Bucs blew an opportunity to with the division last week against the Saints, but they won’t squander that opportunity again.
2. Texans -1.5: We were right to like the Texans last week against the Titans, and I believe we are taking the right side in this matchup. Demeco Ryans has done an unbelievable job turning around the culture in Houston, and I expect them to show out in a big way to close the 2023-2024 regular season.
3. Dolphins +3: Miami got embarrassed by the Bills in week 4, losing 48-20. They also just got embarrassed 56-19 last week at Baltimore. As a result, media members around the country are ripping Miami for being fake and not legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I like the contrarian play against those narratives, give me the Dolphins as home underdogs.
Props (2-1 last week, 27-25 for the year)
1. CJ Stroud over 257.5 passing yards: CJ Stroud had a pedestrian performance by his standards last week in his return, but also much wasn’t required of him as the Texans blew out the Titans. This week at Indianapolis should be much a much closer affair, and oh by the way, Stroud went for 384 yards in their week 2 matchup.
2. Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving yards: Evans has another juicy matchup against a team he went for 162 yards against earlier this year. The Bucs need a win to win the division, and going through Evans is going to be a key to that victory.
3. Josh Allen to score a TD: Allen has scored a TD in 9 of his last 10 games, including 5 straight with 3 of those games being 2 touchdown efforts. The man is looking to score the football and for good reason, the Bills have won 4 of their last 5. In the biggest game of the year, I expect Allen to use his giant frame to plunge in at least once.