by: Double E
NFL Week 15
A course correction saw us go 3-3 last week, but again the profits were there for the taking. Dallas and Philly would have easily gone over if not for three costly Eagles fumbles. The Ravens had the ball up 7 and needing only a field goal to thwart the pesky Rams, but they also could not capitalize on their opportunity. Finally, DK Metcalf had an amazing start, catching two early passes including a long touchdown before being blanked the rest of the game.
I must note that the DK pick was made before it was announced Geno was going to miss the contest. Should any injuries have an impact on my selections in this article, I advise you to reevaluate your position on the selection. Sports betting apps will sometimes allow you to cancel your bet.
I focus on our losses because they were either very close or started promising. Our wins were slam dunks, as Chuba received 9 more carries than we needed, Pittman again saw double digit targets and caught 8 balls for the 6th straight game, and the Chiefs and Bills didn’t even crack 40 points.
Week 15 is a fun one to bet on because it is also the start of the fantasy playoffs. While I won’t make any recommendations here, I advise you to look at hedging your fantasy playoff matchups with sports bets. For example, in 2 of my 4 playoff matchups, I’m playing against Raheem Mostert, so I’m going to bet over on his rushing total and for him to score a TD. Keep opportunities like that in mind as we look at my top plays for this week.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 22-20 for the year)
1. Broncos +11 at Lions, Cowboys +9.5 at Bills in 7-point teaser: We start this week with a teaser of two road underdogs playing some incredible football. My Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 including their first road division game in 4 years. The Cowboys have won 5 straight and absolutely dismantled the Eagles last week. I look for both teams to play competitive games in their push for the playoffs, and even if they lose, I don’t expect it to be by more than one score.
2. Rams ML vs Commanders, Dolphins ML vs Jets parlay: First straight parlay I’ve recommended in this space, but there couldn’t be a better time for it. Both teams are coming off losses and playing inferior opponents at home. They should be hungry for a win as they battle for the playoffs.
3. Bears/Browns under 38.5: For all the quarterback trouble they’ve suffered through, it’s amazing what the Browns have been able to do offensively. Still, they’ve posted a 5-1-1 record on unders at home this year, as their top ranked defense suffocates opposing offenses. On the other side, 5 of the last 6 Bears games have gone under.
Props (2-1 last week, 23-20 for the year)
1. Matthew Stafford under 24.5 completions: Stafford has an incredible matchup this week and I would highly advise starting him in fantasy if you can, but he’s only gone over this total 3 times in 13 games. The Rams are also heavy favorites this week, creating the risk of a blowout and less of a need for Stafford to carry the offense.
2. Rachaad White under 19.5 carries: White is a favorite of this article, but he’s normally been featured for his pass catching. It may surprise you that in 4 of his last 6 games, he’s also received 20 or more carries. 3 of those 4 games though came against inferior competition and resulted in Bucs wins, whereas this week they are underdogs on the road and likely to pass more than they run. You’re already starting White in fantasy if you have him but expect more through the air this week than the ground.
3. Bailey Zappe over 0.5 passing touchdowns: I’m buying into the hype and giving Zappe one chance to make me look like a genius or an idiot. I like what I saw from Zappe last week against the Steelers, and there seemed to be increased energy overall from the Patriots offense. The Chiefs have an improved defense, but since they’re likely to be ahead, I like Zappe to throw at least one in while trying to play keep up.