by: Double E
NFL Week 14
Last week was a sickening reminder of how difficult this league can be to predict. It was our first week getting less than 2 picks correct, but thankfully it came after three straight 4-2 weeks, so we are still 42-37 on the season.
Looking back, we could have just as easily gone 5-1 last week. The Eagles had an unexpected meltdown against the Niners. Pittsburgh lost Pickett, then failed to score the TD, then failed to play competent football. Rhamondre had 66% of his total in the first quarter and then got injured. Sam Howell played behind all game as predicted, but the Commanders randomly decided this was the game they weren’t going to throw to keep up.
All of this leads us to week 14, let’s dive in.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 21-18 for the year)
1. Eagles/Cowboys over 51.5 points: I’m going back to the well as I wrote back in Week 9 about the explosive offensive games these teams play. The last 3 games in Dallas between these teams yielded 74, 62, and 54 points, making me unafraid of attacking the highest total of the week.
2. Ravens -7.5 vs Rams: The Rams are playing better lately, winning three straight, but the Ravens are coming off a bye and have terrorized NFC opponents in the Lamar Jackson era. This year alone, they are 3-0 vs the NFC, outscoring those opponents 106-33. I applaud the Rams for their efforts, but they’re facing a different beast this week.
3. Bills/Chiefs under 48.5: This will be unpopular with many of you, and I could look like a total fool, but these teams are not the same ones we’ve been accustomed to for the last several years. In 12 games, the Chiefs have shockingly gone over this total ONCE. Expect some fireworks, but not enough for the over.
Props (0-3 last week, 21-19 for the year)
1. Chuba Hubbard over 13.5 rushing attempts: Chuba has gone over this total in two straight as the Panthers have showed a greater effort to protect Byrce Young from airing it out. Bryce has 31 pass attempts or less the last three games after throwing 31 times or more in the first 8 games. The Panthers have also demonstrated they’ll stick with the run when playing behind, which is key as they are 5-point underdogs against the Saints.
2. DK Metcalf over 4.5 receptions: DK has gone over this total in 6 of 11 games this season, including 3 of the last 4. The one miss? You guessed it, against the Niners. However, in that game, DK saw 9 targets, including several deep shots that were inches from being completed. I’m assuming the volume will be there again with the Seahawks being 11-point underdogs, but this time I see the Seahawks manufacturing more touches for their best player.
3. Michael Pittman Jr. over 6.5 receptions: Pittman has been on a tear, recording 8 or more catches in 5 straight while seeing double digit targets in four of those games. The Colts have won 4 of those 5 games, so I anticipate them sticking with their recent play calling, allowing the rejuvenated Gardner Minshew to continue finding his favorite weapon.