by: Double E
NFL Week 13
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving surrounded by loved ones. I am thankful for another profitable week, our third straight going 4-2, and a very healthy 41-32 on the year.
Props were our big winner last week, a perfect 3-0 thanks to continued success picking running backs. Ironically, picking against my Broncos once again caused a loss, as they blew out the Browns after forcing DTR out of the game with a massive hit that was incorrectly flagged for roughing the passer.
Week 13 is packed with intriguing matchups, let’s get to it.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 20-16 for the year)
1. Eagles +9 vs Niners, Saints +10.5 vs Lions in 6-point teaser: Our first pick this week teases two home underdogs that have good chances of winning their games outright. Getting the Eagles as underdogs at home is a rare sight in today’s NFL landscape, so teasing them feels automatic. The Saints face a Lions team coming off a horrendous loss to the Packers, but they’ve been trending the wrong way for three weeks after barely beating the Chargers and Bears prior to the Packers loss.
2. Broncos +9 at Texans, Steelers +0.5 vs Cardinals in 6-point teaser: Alright, I’m giving in. I’ve picked against my Broncos twice during this 5 game win streak and they’ve obliterated those picks. I’ll roll with them this week and teasing them over a touchdown in a game I think gets won by a field goal seems appropriate. I’ll pair them with the Steelers, who we get for basically the ML. They play at home against a Cardinals team that just got walloped at home against the Rams and now makes the difficult cross country road trip.
3. Dolphins/Commanders over 49.5 points: This game features two offenses that can move the ball, even though the Commanders only had 10 points against Dallas. 4 of the last 5 Commanders games have gone over this total, and I would expect more of the same with the Dolphins coming to town.
Props (3-0 last week, 21-16 for the year)
1. Rhamondre Stevenson over 59.5 rushing yards vs Chargers: Rhamondre has come on strong the last 3 weeks, going over 86 yards in each game. This week he faces the Chargers who willingly let teams gash them on the ground. I love Rhamondre to easily go over this, and potentially eclipse 100 yards for the first time this season.
2. Mike Evans under 70.5 receiving yards: Evans has played unbelievably this season, scoring 9 touchdowns in 11 games and he’s well on his way to his tenth straight 1,000 yard season to start his career. However, he’s only gone over this total 4 times in those 11 games, and faces a stingy Panthers pass defense this week. Fade the Bucs star in this one.
3. Sam Howell over 37.5 passing attempts: Howell has gone over 40 passing attempts in 6 straight, and I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t surpass that total again this week. The Commanders are heavy underdogs to the Dolphins with a high projected scoring total, Howell should be throwing all day trying to keep up with Tua and company.