by: Double E
NFL Week 12
Happy Turkey Day to you and yours! Thanksgiving week in the NFL is one of the best, with 4 games taking place before our normal Sunday slate. Watching football on Thanksgiving is a tradition in my family as I’m sure it is in many of yours, and I personally am a big fan of the new Black Friday game. We have a lot to be thankful for this NFL season, as another 4-2 week has brought our season record to 37-30.
4 games on Sunday have totals under 40, meaning unders are becoming harder to hit. Let’s dive in and see where the value lies this week.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 19-14 for the year)
1. Browns +7.5 at Broncos, Bengals +8.5 vs Steelers in a 6-point teaser: Both these games have low projected totals (under 40), providing an advantage to the underdogs. With a 6-point teaser, we get more than a touchdown for two teams playing below-average offenses. Even though the Browns and Bengals have below-average offenses themselves with backup quarterbacks, they should make enough plays to keep these games close.
2. Bucs/Colts over 38.5, Rams/Cardinals over 38.5 in 6-point teaser: On the other end of the scoring spectrum, I like teasing these two games featuring below-average defenses. All 4 teams give up 19.6 points or more per game, so expect plenty of fireworks as each team features two or more playmakers that should have big days.
3. Raiders +9 vs Chiefs: I picked against the Raiders last week when they were 13.5-point underdogs at Miami, and they proceeded to cover by losing by only 7. The logic was Miami’s offense was the most dynamic in the league, and coming off a bye, would have several schematic plays to blow the doors off the Raiders defense. Instead, the Raiders held their own and now get to play at home against an average Chiefs offense. With this kind of spread, I’ll ride with the inspired play for this week.
Props (2-1 last week, 18-16 for the year)
1. Jaylen Warren over 47.5 rushing yards: Jaylen has 88 rushing yards or more in each of the last three games, including over 100 in each of the last two. The Steelers are road favorites, indicating a likely heavy dose of both Warren and Harris. With a new OC calling the plays, I expect the Steelers to play inspired offensively, helping Warren hit the over.
2. Rachaad White over 51.5 rushing yards: White has been previously featured for his receiving skills, but this week he gets an awesome matchup to display his rushing ability. He’s only gone over this total 3 times this year, but the Colts have been putrid defending the run. Helping his case is the fact White has garnered 20 carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks.
3. Rhamondre Stevenson over 55.5 rushing yards: Another running back with an awesome matchup, Rhamondre has looked great the last two weeks, going for 87 and 88 yards. The Patriots offense might be one of the worst the league has ever seen, but count on Stevenson to get featured and ultimately hit this over.