by: Double E
Week 11
The second half of the NFL season started off with a bang, as utilizing our trends from the first half led us to a profitable 4-2 week, and raised our season record to 33-28.
Not every week from here on out will only feature unders, underdogs, and running backs, but keep those trends in mind if you place additional bets.
Quarterback’s have dropped like flies this season, leading to interesting spreads and props alike, let’s dig in.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 17-13 for the year)
1. Cowboys -10.5 at Panthers: Dallas is 6-3 ATS this season, with the losses coming against the Eagles, Niners, and that one weird game against the Cardinals. The Cardinals game notwithstanding, the Cowboys have dominated weaker competition this year. In their 6 wins ATS, the Cowboys have covered by an average of 18 points. The Panthers, for their part, have not put up much of a fight this year, going 2-6-1 ATS. Roll with dem boys.
2. Bills/Jets under 39.5: These teams met in week 1 and the total for that matchup was set at 44.5. One torn Achilles later, and that game ended with a total of 38. The Jets scored 22 points in that game and since then, have only scored above 22 points once. The Jets have gone under in 4 straight games, while the Bills have gone under in 5 of their last 6. For good measure, these teams have gone under this total in their last 4 matchups.
3. Dolphins -13.5 vs Raiders: The Raiders have looked more cohesive as an NFL team since dismissing arguably the worst head coach in NFL history, but don’t let that fool you into thinking they’re a vastly improved team. Both of their wins in the last two weeks have come at home playing teams from New York. Playing on the road against the Dolphins will prove to be a different challenge with McDaniel and the Cheetah coming off a bye.
Props (2-1 last week, 16-15 for the year)
1. Jordan Love over 228.5 passing yards: Love is seen as a failure this year because the Packers are 3-6, but he’s gone over this total in 6 out of 9 games, and all three times he’s gone under have been on the road. The Chargers have given up more passing yards than this total in every game this season, and the list of quarterbacks they’ve faced includes Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson, Aidan O’Connell, and Tyson Bagent. For this week only, Love is a solid play.
2. Derrick Henry over 53.5 rushing yards: Henry is having a down year by his standards, averaging his lowest rushing YPG (69.4) since 2018. Against the Jaguars though, Henry has gone over 100 yards in 5 of the last 6 games. Trust the King in a familiar matchup.
3. Dalton Schultz under 4.5 receptions: Schultz has come alive in recent weeks, including an explosion against the Bucs where he caught 10 balls for 130 yards and a touchdown. However, that game was only one of two games that he’s gone over 4 receptions, and the Cardinals have been shockingly good against TE’s despite their horrible record.