by: Double E
Week 8
It’s Halloween week in the NFL, which means we can expect to see plenty of interesting costumes at stadiums this weekend. It also means we’ve observed some scary trends, both good and bad, through the first 7 weeks. Kirk Cousins proved his scary good trend was accurate by destroying the 49ers’ elite defense in prime time. The previous narrative about Kirk being unable to perform in that setting was truck-sticked by the trends called out in last week’s article. Similarly, unders continued their scary bad trend in this young NFL season and have now hit at a staggering 61% clip. 23-20 through 7 weeks is scary close to .500, so let’s not ghost our discipline to research witch matchups will yield the best results.
This week will feature new kinds of bets not previously mentioned in this article. However, I think you’ll agree after reading, they can be frighteningly profitable when played correctly.
Let’s get ready for the spookiest weekend in the NFL.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 11-10 for the year)
1. Lions -2.5 vs Raiders, Chiefs -2.5 at Broncos in 5-point teaser: That’s right, the new kind of bet getting featured this week is a teaser bet, where we as the bettor get to control the spread on the game with predetermined odds. Teaser bets normally default to 6-points, but thankfully these spreads are low enough where a 5-point teaser gets us past the magical cutoff of 3, and much better payout odds (-110 vs -134). I see two potential blowout games here, with the Raiders and Broncos representing the worst of what the NFL has to offer in today’s offense driven league. The Lions are coming off an embarrassing loss at the Ravens, while the Chiefs have reeled off 16 straight wins over the Broncos. Both elite teams should have little difficulty dominating this weekend and covering this reduced spread.
2. Jaguars +3.5 at Steelers, Vikings +3.5 at Packers in 5-point teaser: Another opportunity to leverage a 5-point teaser is presented by two road favorites this week. 5 points for these teams buys us a field goal, quite a luxury for two teams that appear to be finding their footing. The Jags started 1-2 before winning 4 straight, and the Vikings were even worse at 1-4 before winning their last two. I also like the way Lawrence and Cousins have looked even though injuries have impacted both. To me, this signals the impact their leadership has on each locker room, and I think that intangible is a winning recipe on the road this weekend.
3. Giants +9 vs Jets, Bengals +10.5 at Niners in 6-point teaser: Our final teaser pairs two underdog teams that are facing very similar situations. Both the Jets and Niners are starting backup quarterbacks, strong defensive teams, and strong at rushing the ball. To me, this signals tight, competitive games to the end where a field goal late likely wins it. Given that, I will happily take the 6 additional points and require both the Giants and Bengals to lose by more than one score for this not to hit.
Props (2-1 last week, 12-10 for the year)
1. Breece Hall over 88.5 rushing and receiving: Coming into the season, the best-case scenario was Hall would take things easy until the bye week, and then ramp up his gameday activity from there. Instead, Hall already has two 100+ yard rushing performances, and is averaging over two catches a game. I expect the Jets to lean on their young star to protect themselves from whatever atrocity Zach Wilson might commit.
2. CJ Stroud over 242.5 passing yards: Stroud has hit this number in 4 of 6 games this season, and he threw for 242 yards in one of those two unders. This week he has extra motivation going against the man taken before him in last year’s draft, and he has had extra time to prepare for a defense missing several key players. I like Stroud to put on a show here and wouldn’t be surprised if he collected his third 300-yard performance of his young NFL career.
3. Brian Robinson under 40.5 rushing yards: All signs point to a very disappointing weekend for Robinson. He’s been under this total in 3 straight weeks as his involvement in the Commanders rushing attack dwindles. Now, he finds himself as a 7-point underdog opposing one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the league. No thank you, I’ll happily grab the under while this prop still exists.