by: Double E
Week 7
A player’s mindset about a tie often depends on how the game started. If you’re ahead and your opponent makes a comeback, you feel defeated. The opposite is also true. A 3-3 record last week saw us go 0-2 in the morning games before mounting a 3-1 comeback in the afternoon. This “victory” kept us on the plus side as we’re now 20-17 through 6 weeks.
Looking back at last week, curious patterns are developing with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. The Vikings are now 2-0 when: they play a team with 1 win or less, they score a defensive touchdown, Kirk Cousins throws for under 200 yards. Cousins’ props have not been set for Monday nights matchup with the Niners, but given these trends, it can be expected that he will thrive. AJ Brown was an example of the benefit of waiting until kickoff to place wagers. I argued he would struggle going against a top cornerback duo in this league, but when those two corners were declared out with injuries, Brown immediately became a solid play.
Let’s get set for another week.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 10-8 for the year)
1. Chargers +5.5 at Chiefs: In their last 6 matchups, the Chiefs have beaten the Chargers once by more than 5.5 points, and that was only by 6 points back in December 2021. Chargers are coming off a tough loss at home against Dallas, so they’ll be extra motivated to steal one against their top division rival and avoid a dreaded 2-4 start to their season.
2. Seahawks -8.0 vs Cardinals: After an impressive 3-0 ATS record to start the season, the Cardinals have since gone 0-3 with an average ATS differential of 8.5. The Seahawks are coming off a tough road loss at Cincy and should be able to take advantage of several matchup advantages and dominate at home.
3. Bucs -2.5 vs Falcons: Hard to look at any history between these two teams as they each have new QBs this year, so give me the hook here on the Buccaneers at home against an Atlanta team that looked lost at times against the Commanders last week. The Bucs for their part have taken care of inferior competition, losing only to the Lions and Eagles who are a combined 10-2.
Props (1-2 last week, 10-9 for the year)
1. Gardner Minshew under 197.5 passing yards: The Browns have a historic defense 5 games through the season and Minshew will be the unfortunate recipient of their brutal pass rush. Myles Garrett and company just showed out against the Niners and I fully expect an encore performance.
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ receptions: St. Brown has hit this number in 4 of the 5 games he’s played this season and I see no reason why he won’t make it 5 of 6. He’s clearly Goff’s favorite target and with the Lions playing underdog on the road, he should be heavily involved to keep the Lions in the game.
3. Saquon Barkley over 17.5 rushing attempts: In his first game back, Barkley carried the rock 24 times and caught 4 passes, signaling he’s fully recovered. In an anticipated close division clash, I expect the Giants to once again lean on their star.