by: Double E
NFL Week 5
There it is, our first losing week and it was a bloodbath. A 2-5 week (including the bonus) saw us match the total combined losses from the first three weeks (5). Fortunately, this still leaves us at a very respectable 15-10 a quarter of the way through the season.
Looking ahead to Week 5, we encounter our first bye week of the season, which means less games to dissect for spread and prop plays we like. However, bye weeks are also a chance to reassess teams that were perhaps overlooked when every team was playing.
Time to keep grinding as we look for new opportunities in Week 5.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 7-5 for the year)
1. Rams +4.5 vs Eagles: The Rams have been one of the bigger surprises this season. There was talk before the season about when they should trade Aaron Donald. There was talk about if Sean McVay was going to retire. There was talk about whether Stafford was going to be able to stay healthy for a full season. All that talk has been disproven. Through the first four weeks, the Rams have the best ATS record (3-0-1) despite the fact they’ve played 3 of the first 4 games on the road. Playing at home against an Eagles team that struggled to put away a Commanders team that just allowed 40 points to the Bears, I’m bullish on the Rams covering and wouldn’t be against sprinkling a little on the money line.
2. Cardinals +3 vs Bengals: Another team that was seen as a preseason cake walk, the Cardinals are a strong 3-1 ATS, with two strong showings at home. They now face a Bengals team that got thrashed in Tennessee a week ago and has struggled all season to find their footing while Burrow works through his injuries. Normally, I would have preferred to zig while the market zagged, but to feel good about that strategy, the Bengals would have had to be underdogs in this situation. Instead, they’re field goal favorites and I’m taking the points and the Cardinals.
3. Saints/Patriots under 39.5: This bet may seem like a weekly copy and paste exercise, but I promise it’s not. Each week, I approach the total with an unbiased mindset and let the line tell me what’s the best play. In this situation, the under screams out like a kid getting an Xbox for Christmas. These teams have combined to go 7-1 to the under this year, and neither offense has managed to score more than 20 points in any game. Sometimes the answer really is that simple.
Props (1-3 last week, 8-5 for the year)
1. Travis Kelce over 76.5 receiving yards: Yes, I am a Taylor Swift fan, but no, this pick is not biased by the dating rumors. This just feels like the perfect breakout game for Kelce. Last year he crossed this total 9 times, and we have yet to see a Kelce-esque performance from him this year. Now that things seemed a little more settled in his new relationship, I think his attention focuses back on the field where he’ll face a Vikings defense susceptible to giving up big plays.
2. Garrett Wilson over 57.5 receiving yards: If Rodgers was healthy, this line would be at least 20-30 yards more. In this situation, the Broncos defense is as bad as Rodgers is good, meaning Wilson is being extremely undervalued. It also helps that Zach Wilson had his best game of the season last week against the Chiefs.
3. Breece Hall over 60.5 rushing yards: It’s not a coincidence that Saleh came out this week and said Hall is no longer on a “pitch count”. Expect the young stud to get fed early and often in the stadium that ended his breakout season a year ago. Did I mention the Broncos have been gashed through the ground as easily as they’ve been gashed through the air?