by: Double E
NFL Week 4
A Steelers road victory in Las Vegas lifted us to another 4-2 week and a strong 13-5 mark through the first three weeks of the young NFL season.
The Titans had a regrettable performance in Cleveland, and Jahan Dotson had the right game situation, but unfortunately his QB couldn’t quite figure out which team he was playing for. The Patriots and Jets was the snooze fest everyone expected, while the aforementioned Steelers looked great in a tough road matchup. Cousins continued to do his thing and Elijah Moore almost hit his over on the first drive before safely securing it early in the second quarter.
A new week brings new opportunity, let’s dive in.
Spreads+Totals (2-1 last week, 6-3 for the year)
1. Raiders +5.5 at Chargers: Normally, division matchups are grueling boxing matches that go all 12 rounds. This also consequently means most division matchups are capped at a 3 point spread. Unsurprisingly, the Chargers have beaten the Raiders by more than 5 points once in their last 8 meetings, making this is an appetizing spread to attack with vengeance.
2. Steelers -3 at Texans: Give the Texans credit. You, me, and everyone outside of Houston’s locker room expected the Jaguars to stomp on the Texans last week and instead were taken behind the woodshed themselves for a good old fashioned beating. Ryans seems to be the right hire for that organization and Stroud is definitely showing strides early on. Perhaps that is enough for some people to erase the memory of the Steelers winning the past 3 matchups by 7 or more, but not for me. Additionally, if you don’t like the 3 point spread, you can always buy the half-point with minimal impact to your odds (-102 vs -125).
3. Patriots/Cowboys under 43.5: These teams have each had one game go over this total this year. Given the strength of their defenses (both top 10 in PPG allowed), I envision both head coaches playing it safe and relying on their ground games (both top 11 in rushing attempts), thus shortening this game significantly and limiting scoring opportunities.
Props (2-1 last week, 7-2 for the year)
1. Bijan Robinson over 25.5 receiving yards: Normally, it’s hard betting on a player with only 3 games under his belt, but Robinson seems to be as advertised: built differently than most players. In this case, he’s crossed this total in all 3 games and clearly commands a healthy target share (5+ targets/game) in an offense that has not yet shown an ability to consistently connect on passes further than 5 yards.
2. James Cook over 57.5 rushing yards: Back to the well again, I think this prop is still indicative of the old Bills offense, and not a true reflection of the culture shift that’s happened on that offense. Josh Allen had 13 games (76%) with 6 carries or more last year and only has one such game (33%) this year. Cook is averaging 6.1 YPC while dominating carries in the Bills backfield, and now faces a Dolphins defense giving up 4.6 YPC which is tied for the seventh worst in the NFL. At that clip, he’ll only need 12 carries to hit this over, a number he’s hit in every game this season.
3. Joe Burrow over 259.5 passing yards: Yes, the calf is a major issue and a big part of why Burrow hasn’t surpassed this total this year. However, this Titans defense is becoming known for allowing big passing days, and they’ve allowed every QB they’ve faced this year to surpass this total. With another week of rest and recovery behind him, Burrow seems motivated to continue playing through the pain and helping his team ascend to its rightful place atop the AFC North. Against the Titans, his best chance to do that is through the air.
Bonus: Kirk Cousins over 279.5 passing yards: This is one of those props that seems backwards. Cousins was featured in this article last week when this total was 14 more yards (293.5), then he went out and surpassed it easily (367), and now it drops? Seems suspicious, and perhaps it’s because the Vikings are favored on the road to beat the Panthers, but regardless I’m riding with Cousins and his lethal arsenal of receiving threats.