by: Double E
NFL Week 3
Don’t call it a win streak, but after a 4-2 finish last week we are now 9-3 through two weeks and looking to keep the good times rolling.
Looking back, we had some close calls and we had some home runs. The Giants made the Cardinals look like a Super Bowl contender before mounting a major comeback to get their first win (and save my eliminator entry), while the Patriots were driving for the game tying touchdown before failing to convert a fourth down lateral. Zach Wilson almost hit the over due to Garrett Wilson’s elite speed, but fell short thanks to a late pick. On the other side, loved seeing Cook and Kirk double their respective props, and the Ravens got the impressive road win.
This week features some new teams and faces that will hopefully lead us to another profitable week. Let’s get into it.
Spreads+Totals (1-2 last week, 4-2 for the year)
1. Patriots/Jets under 36.5 total points: Close your eyes and project what the score of this game will be. Doesn’t 20-17 sound crazy? Doesn’t that sound like an unfathomable achievement for these two mediocre offenses against these elite defenses? I agree with you. I see an absolutely slugfest here where the first one to 10 wins.
2. Steelers +2.5 at Raiders: Did you see that Steelers defense last week? They looked hungry after getting blasted by the Niners in week one and I expect that effort to continue in Las Vegas this week. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers offense has looked rough through two weeks, but that’s been against two elite defenses. The Raiders will be much easier to move the ball against. Ironically, the Steelers have lost three straight to the Raiders on the road by exactly 3 points, but I’m betting Tomlin out-coaches McDaniels and gets the road win.
3. Titans +3.5 at Browns: Our only game of the week providing the hook on a field goal and I’m all for it. The Titans have played surprisingly well through two weeks against two solid teams, and it appears Vrabel has this team playing at its max potential early on. Throw in a solid Browns defense and I expect this to be a low scoring game that comes down to a late field goal, possibly in the Titans favor.
Props (3-0 last week, 5-1 for the year)
1. Elijah Moore over 36.5 receiving yards: Moore missed the over on this total by one yard last week, but it wasn’t for lack of involvement. Through the first two weeks, he’s received 16 targets, but only has 6 receptions to show for it. Against the soft Titans secondary (which we we’ve discussed previously), and given Nick Chubb’s unfortunate season-ending injury, Moore is in prime position to finally capitalize on those targets and breakout in a big way.
2. Kirk Cousins over 293.5 passing yards: Am I missing something here? After back to back weeks of 44 attempts and over 340 passing yards, we can still get this prop for under 300 yards? Insanity! In the highest projected total of the week (by far), I’m hammering my favorite gold chain wearer.
3. Jahan Dotson over 3.5 receptions: It’s not often you see a 2-0 team playing at home in week 3 as a big underdog, but that’s the situation Dotson and the Commanders find themselves in when they host the Bills this weekend. That’s beneficial for Dotson as the Commanders should throw often to keep with the Bills, and Terry McLaurin, not Dotson, will draw the tough assignment of getting open against Tre’davious White. In his last 7 games, Dotson has averaged 6.7 targets, meaning a paltry 59% completion rate will be enough to hit the over here.