by: Double E
NFL Week 2
If you joined us last week, welcome. You’re probably feeling good after going 5-1 to start the 2023 NFL season.
Reflecting on last week, the one loss was Chase going under his receiving yards after a historically poor performance from Burrow and the Bengals offense. This is the NFL, those things will happen. Four of the wins smashed, while the Niners had me at the edge of my seat early by jumping all over the Steelers. Thankfully, they dialed things back late and the under held.
This week offers several value picks that I’ll dissect below, let’s get into it.
Spreads+Totals (3-0 last week, 3-0 for the year)
1. Giants -4.5: One classic strategy that will get talked about often in this weekly article is the zig-zag nature of the NFL. The Giants won a playoff game last year, but seem discounted here due to being manhandled by the Cowboys last week 40-0. The Cardinals went 4-13 last year, have a new head coach and one of the lowest projected win totals in the league this year, but they looked decent enough against the Commanders that everyone seems to think they care about winning now. Yes, the Cardinals have won the last 4 times in this matchup, but their last meeting was 3 seasons ago and things have changed quite a bit since then. Even on the road, I’m hammering the Giants -4.5.
2. Ravens +3: The Bengals have won 4 of the last 5, but that includes twice last year when Anthony Brown and Tyler Huntley started. They lost the one matchup against Lamar. Now, Lamar is healthy while Burrow is hobbling, and if week one was any indication, that dramatically favors the Ravens. Give me Ravens +3 in another tough matchup between AFC North rivals.
3. Patriots +3: Yes, yes. The Patriots won at home last year largely due to Tua’s injury. Even the elite duo of Hill and Waddle can’t transform Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson into average NFL quarterbacks. In this situation, the schedule makers unfortunately did the Dolphins dirty by scheduling them for back-to-back, coast-to-coast road games to start the season. Even for a team as talented as the Dolphins, that is a huge ask going against the coaching GOAT in prime time. Reluctantly give me the Patriots +3.
Props (2-1 last week, 2-1 for the year)
1. Wilson under 174.5 passing yards: Since being drafted number 2 overall in the 2021 draft, Wilson has demonstrated an unquestionable inability to sling it. Even in what should be a favorable game script (Jets are 8.5 point dogs), I’m expecting Saleh to lean more on his running game and defense to keep this game close. That’s before getting into how legit this Cowboys defense is. I’m all over Wilson under 174.5 passing yards.
2. Cook over 50.5 rushing yards: This is an atrociously low total for the lead back on an 8.5 point home favorite. Unlike Wilson, Cook has talent and should easily top this total. He just recorded 46 yards last week against a stout Jets defense, and now faces a weaker Raiders defense that allowed a hobbled Javonte Williams to go over this total just last week.
3. Kirk over 44.5 receiving yards: Lots of people will avoid Kirk this week after that dud performance in week one and the apparent resurgence of Calvin Ridley. Don’t let that blind you. Kirk is a favorite target of Lawrence and the Jaguars will need to sling it to keep up with the Chiefs. Kirk tallied 157 yards and 3 touchdowns in two matchups with the Chiefs last year, sign me up for a repeat performance.