by: Double E
NFL Week 1
Spreads+Totals (0-0 for the year)
1. Browns +2.5: Browns were 1-1 ATS last year against the Bengals, but the win came at home when they were 3 point underdogs, and they won outright 32-13. Browns were only 8-9 ATS overall last year, but year 2 with Deshaun Watson is expected to be better and against a hampered Burrow, give me the Browns and the points.
2. 49ers/Steelers under 41.5: Last year, both teams ranked top 10 in scoring defense, combining to hold opponents under 37 points. Both teams are starting young second year quarterbacks and will likely lean on their strong run games to protect them against the likes of Nick Bosa and TJ Watt. Last year, both teams started the year with back to back unders. I’m taking under 41.5 before the oddsmakers get smart.
3. Dolphins/Chargers over 50.5: When these teams met last December, the over/under was set at 55. These dynamic offenses spectacularly failed to the under with a total of 40 (Chargers won 23-17), but Tua was a measly 10-28 for 145 yards. This season, both teams feature new coordinators (Moore in LA, and Vangio in Miami), but it’s LA who’s at full strength (for now) while the Dolphins are set to begin the season without their prized signing Jalen Ramsey. I’ll take over 50.5 here in a shootout.
Props (0-0 for the year)
1. Chase over 77.5 receiving yards: Chase had a tough rookie year against the Browns (75 receiving yards in two games), but broke out in a big way last year with 119 yards in his only game. Denzel Ward is a top cornerback in the NFL, but Chase appears to have figured him out, and he loves to show out in the first game, averaging 115 receiving yards through his first two years.
2. Olave over 66.5 receiving yards: This is a relatively small hurdle for one of the biggest breakout candidates of 2023. True, he only covered this total 6 times in 15 tries last year, but he also had Andy Dalton as his quarterback for the majority of the year. Dalton had only one start in which he threw for over 300 yards, and Olave was the recipient of 106 of those yards. I’m expecting Carr to look his way early and often against the Titans soft secondary, a unit which ranked dead last in passing yards allowed per game last year.
3. Tua over 259.5 passing yards: As I pointed out previously, Tua had a dreadful game against the Chargers last year. Something tells me Mike McDaniel has a special game plan to erase that memory, and any doubts about Tua’s health. I fully expect Tua to air it out in a big way and cover this total just like he did 9 times last year.